Working thesis
Highly correlated to global growth and commodity prices (iron ore, coal).
Evidence ledger
Catalogue baseline
Original SimTicker catalogue (illustrative) · 26 Sep 2026
Issuer reference
Unspecified issuer · 26 Sep 2026
Macro context
FRED market benchmarks · 26 Sep 2026
Index = 100 today. Back-cast and 10-year paths from a 4.3% reference yield and 11.5% volatility guide.
downside · 10y
94.8
base · 10y
155.9
upside · 10y
198.2
Stated assumptions: yields fade toward a 5% long-run rate; Asia-Pacific bloc — Trade- and China-demand-linked economies tend to co-move. Longer horizons carry wider uncertainty. Projections are re-modelled as data and evidence update over time; last modelled 26 Sep 2026. Illustrative only — not a forecast, record of past returns, or investment advice. The back-cast is simulated.
These scores describe scenario completeness and resilience, not returns or approval.
Next step
Open a focused workspace for an offering memorandum, whitepaper, term sheet, or evidence dossier.