Modelled index
RWN.ENR.0178.0±35 ptsRWN.AGR.0164.0±39 ptsRWN.INF.0161.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0183.0±33 ptsRWN.ENR.0259.0±47 ptsRWN.ENR.0346.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0268.0±45 ptsRWN.AGR.0257.0±42 ptsRWN.AGR.0362.0±41 ptsRWN.INF.0344.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0453.0±45 ptsRWN.INF.0566.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0261.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0363.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0448.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0171.0±40 ptsRWN.CRD.0258.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0388.0±22 ptsRWN.CMD.0179.0±35 ptsRWN.CMD.0239.0±46 ptsRWN.PRP.0546.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0954.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1148.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1240.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1340.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1448.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0464.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0548.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1058.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1134.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1258.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0148.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0234.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0740.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0358.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1140.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1234.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0248.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0458.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0758.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0848.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0334.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.1034.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0158.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0558.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0648.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0748.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.ENR.0178.0±35 ptsRWN.AGR.0164.0±39 ptsRWN.INF.0161.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0183.0±33 ptsRWN.ENR.0259.0±47 ptsRWN.ENR.0346.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0268.0±45 ptsRWN.AGR.0257.0±42 ptsRWN.AGR.0362.0±41 ptsRWN.INF.0344.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0453.0±45 ptsRWN.INF.0566.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0261.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0363.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0448.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0171.0±40 ptsRWN.CRD.0258.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0388.0±22 ptsRWN.CMD.0179.0±35 ptsRWN.CMD.0239.0±46 ptsRWN.PRP.0546.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0954.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1148.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1240.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1340.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1448.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0464.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0548.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1058.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1134.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1258.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0148.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0234.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0740.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0358.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1140.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1234.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0248.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0458.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0758.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0848.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0334.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.1034.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0158.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0558.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0648.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0748.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.1040.0±26 pts
Frontiers · Oil & Energy · Stress lab
Challenge the source of return.
These are deterministic cases, not predictions or probability-weighted forecasts. Both investor structures inherit the same physical production shocks.
Oil & Energy stress & sensitivity
Compare price, decline, outage and closure shocks across both structures without treating them as forecasts.
Deterministic scenarios
Each case changes one or more assumptions from your current inputs; everything else is held constant.
| Scenario | Producing NPV | Producing IRR | Royalty NPV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | −$140,576 | Unavailable | $571,710 |
| Price −30%, all years | −$1,939,627 | Unavailable | $115,950 |
| Faster decline +10 percentage points | −$1,086,646 | Unavailable | $200,260 |
| Year 1: six-month equivalent outage | −$535,522 | Unavailable | $425,980 |
| Closure cost doubles | −$259,429 | Unavailable | $571,710 |
| Combined: price −30%, uptime 70%, closure ×2 | −$2,477,778 | Unavailable | −$99,600 |
Benchmark price × effective annual decline
Producing-interest NPV. Price replaces the initial benchmark; decline replaces the base decline. All other assumptions remain selected.
| Decline | $45/bbl | $60/bbl | $75/bbl | $90/bbl | $105/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | −$2,228,194 | −$664,537 | $899,120 | $2,462,778 | $4,026,435 |
| 10% | −$2,461,814 | −$1,172,643 | $116,527 | $1,405,697 | $2,694,867 |
| 15% | −$2,641,617 | −$1,559,657 | −$477,697 | $604,263 | $1,686,222 |
| 20% | −$2,781,606 | −$1,857,848 | −$934,090 | −$10,332 | $913,426 |
| 30% | −$2,980,371 | −$2,275,167 | −$1,569,963 | −$864,759 | −$159,554 |
A royalty holder still depends on the operator continuing to produce. This simplified model does not suspend production when the operator’s economics deteriorate. Use uptime, volume cap and model life to test interruption and early cessation.
Funding required after acquisition
Producing cash calls
$358,069
Sum of negative annual cash
Royalty shortfalls
$0
Administration may exceed receipts
Final closure share
$373,012
Inflated to model end
Final principal
$0
Interest-only debt repaid
Next: refining, midstream and power—different businesses with their own cash-flow mechanics.
Energy value chain →