Every major assumption is visible.

The core model is a fictional ordinary-equity investment in a club, using annual periods and USD millions.

Formulas and conventions

Measure	Calculation / convention
Entry equity value	Enterprise value − gross debt + club cash. Must be positive.
Initial investor cash	Entry equity value × stake × (1 + entry fee). A secondary purchase; it does not add cash to the club.
Revenue by year	Year 1 stream × (1 + revenue growth)^(year − 1) × (1 + selected outcome effect).
Operating costs	Wages and other opex grow separately from year 2. Only wages receive the outcome adjustment.
EBITDA proxy	Revenue − wages − other opex. Not statutory EBITDA or a regulatory ratio.
Cash-tax proxy	max(0, EBITDA proxy − interest) × assumed tax rate. No loss carryforwards, depreciation or local tax rules.
Club free cash flow	EBITDA proxy − interest − tax proxy − capex − net recruitment cash − principal repayment.
Deficit funding	Club cash first, then a pro-rata capital call for the remainder. All calls assumed funded.
Positive free cash flow	Distribute the selected payout percentage; retain the rest. Existing cash is not automatically distributed.
Exit enterprise value	Final-season revenue × exit revenue multiple. No normalisation is applied automatically.
Exit investor receipt	max(0, exit EV − closing debt + closing cash) × stake × (1 − exit discount) × (1 − exit fee).
Investor profit	Distributions + exit receipt − initial outlay − subsequent capital calls.
MOIC	All positive receipts / all invested capital, including subsequent calls.
NPV	Annual investor flows discounted at the specified hurdle; initial outlay at time zero.
IRR	Log-rate grid from ≈ −99.99% to 100m% with bisection on sign changes. A single IRR is shown only when exactly one root is found.
Dilution lab	(Pre-money × current stake + contribution) / (pre-money + total raise). Separate from the core model.
Revenue-share lab	Eligible revenue × share rate × (1 − deductions) at each year-end over the term. No terminal value or principal.

Season effects · % change to that season’s grown baseline

Outcome	Matchday	Media	Commercial	Wages
Baseline season	0%	0%	0%	0%
Title / deep run	15%	12%	10%	10%
Missed qualification	-10%	-20%	-5%	0%
Relegated season	-25%	-50%	-20%	-10%
Sponsor loss	0%	0%	-30%	0%
Venue disruption	-40%	0%	-10%	0%

Fictional effects, not probabilities or forecasts. Relegation is available only in the open-league football profile. Effects do not persist or reset future growth.

Scope and exclusions

No live financial feed, team valuation, league approval or offering is connected. Excluded: working capital, transfer instalment timing, new debt, preferred waterfalls, investor-specific taxes, FX, detailed venue development, insolvency recovery and probabilistic sporting forecasts. Ownership is constant in the core model.

Evidence labels

Observed: dated company disclosures and rulebooks on the evidence page. Assumed: profile inputs and season effects. Modelled: every calculated account, cash flow, IRR, NPV and MOIC. Outputs are pre-investor-tax and in USD millions.

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