Modelled index
RWN.ENR.0178.0±35 ptsRWN.AGR.0164.0±39 ptsRWN.INF.0161.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0183.0±33 ptsRWN.ENR.0259.0±47 ptsRWN.ENR.0346.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0268.0±45 ptsRWN.AGR.0257.0±42 ptsRWN.AGR.0362.0±41 ptsRWN.INF.0344.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0453.0±45 ptsRWN.INF.0566.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0261.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0363.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0448.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0171.0±40 ptsRWN.CRD.0258.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0388.0±22 ptsRWN.CMD.0179.0±35 ptsRWN.CMD.0239.0±46 ptsRWN.PRP.0546.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0954.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1148.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1240.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1340.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1448.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0464.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0548.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1058.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1134.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1258.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0148.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0234.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0740.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0358.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1140.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1234.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0248.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0458.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0758.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0848.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0334.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.1034.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0158.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0558.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0648.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0748.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.ENR.0178.0±35 ptsRWN.AGR.0164.0±39 ptsRWN.INF.0161.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0183.0±33 ptsRWN.ENR.0259.0±47 ptsRWN.ENR.0346.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0268.0±45 ptsRWN.AGR.0257.0±42 ptsRWN.AGR.0362.0±41 ptsRWN.INF.0344.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0453.0±45 ptsRWN.INF.0566.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0261.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0363.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0448.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0171.0±40 ptsRWN.CRD.0258.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0388.0±22 ptsRWN.CMD.0179.0±35 ptsRWN.CMD.0239.0±46 ptsRWN.PRP.0546.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0954.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1148.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1240.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1340.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1448.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0464.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0548.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1058.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1134.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1258.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0148.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0234.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0740.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0358.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1140.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1234.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0248.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0458.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0758.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0848.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0334.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.1034.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0158.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0558.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0648.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0748.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.1040.0±26 pts
Frontiers · Trading Cards · Exit scenarios
A buyer, a price, and a date.
Deterministic stress tests, not probability forecasts. Each case changes only the assumptions shown.
Deterministic exit scenarios
How price contraction, a longer sale, an exit discount and higher fees change your net profit and annualised return.
| Scenario | Annual change | Delay | Exit cut | Seller fee | Net profit | Annualised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current case | 8% | 3 mo | 0% | 12% | $1,082 | 1.78% | Current |
| Flat price | 0% | 3 mo | 0% | 12% | -$3,048 | -5.88% | |
| Price contraction | -10% | 3 mo | 0% | 12% | -$6,652 | -15.69% | |
| Longer sale process | 8% | 15 mo | 0% | 12% | $822 | 1.13% | |
| 30% exit reduction | 8% | 3 mo | 30% | 12% | -$2,797 | -5.34% | |
| Combined stress | -10% | 24 mo | 30% | 18% | -$8,919 | -18.99% |
Annualised return sensitivity
Annual price change × additional sale delay. Other current assumptions stay fixed.
| Growth / delay | 0 months | 6 months | 12 months | 24 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% / yr | -16.25% | -15.18% | -14.28% | -12.86% |
| 0% / yr | -6.04% | -5.74% | -5.49% | -5.11% |
| 5% / yr | -1.01% | -1.14% | -1.24% | -1.41% |
| 10% / yr | 3.98% | 3.41% | 2.94% | 2.20% |
| 15% / yr | 8.94% | 7.91% | 7.06% | 5.73% |
No sale is also a possible outcome.
If the card cannot be sold, there is no realised exit return. The model assumes a sale at the chosen date; extend the delay or test a 100% exit reduction to examine severe loss. Authentication failure, theft and disputes need separate recovery analysis.
Next: define the rights before the token.
Token architecture →