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Deterministic allocation & exit scenarios
Allocation and price vary independently; all other inputs inherit the entitlement lab.
| Scenario | Year 1 operating cash | NPV | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current assumptions | $153,500 | -$678,214 | 4.7% |
| Dry: 30% allocation, price +50% | $92,250 | -$1,089,206 | 2.6% |
| Dry + weak price: 30%, price −25% | $37,125 | -$1,459,099 | 0.8% |
| Wet: 100% allocation, price −40% | $129,000 | -$842,611 | 3.8% |
| Transfer freeze: no sales, exit −30% | -$18,000 | -$2,237,529 | -4.6% |
Allocation × sale-price sensitivity
NPV at 8% under sustained conditions for the full holding period; capital growth and exit assumptions remain unchanged.
| Allocation | -50% price | -25% price | +0% price | +25% price | +50% price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | -$1,828,993 | -$1,828,993 | -$1,828,993 | -$1,828,993 | -$1,828,993 |
| 25% | -$1,623,496 | -$1,520,748 | -$1,418,000 | -$1,315,252 | -$1,212,504 |
| 50% | -$1,418,000 | -$1,212,504 | -$1,007,008 | -$801,511 | -$596,015 |
| 75% | -$1,212,504 | -$904,260 | -$596,015 | -$287,771 | $20,474 |
| 100% | -$1,007,008 | -$596,015 | -$185,023 | $225,970 | $636,962 |
Two-year drought followed by recovery
Years 1–2 receive 20% allocation; later years revert to your base. Price follows the base path; no drought frequency is predicted.
Cash flow through an illustrative drought
Annual operating cash before terminal sale proceeds · Modelled USD; exact values follow below.
| Year | Allocated ML | Operating cash USD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 200 | $31,000 |
| 2 | 200 | $31,000 |
| 3 | 700 | $153,500 |
| 4 | 700 | $153,500 |
| 5 | 700 | $153,500 |
| 6 | 700 | $153,500 |
| 7 | 700 | $153,500 |
| 8 | 700 | $153,500 |
| 9 | 700 | $153,500 |
| 10 | 700 | $153,500 |
Permanent loss of entitlement is more severe than a transfer freeze. No automatic recovery value is assigned after cancellation. Test zero recovery with 0% allocation and 100% exit costs in the entitlement lab.
Edit the entitlement assumptions →