Modelled index
RWN.ENR.0178.0±35 ptsRWN.AGR.0164.0±39 ptsRWN.INF.0161.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0183.0±33 ptsRWN.ENR.0259.0±47 ptsRWN.ENR.0346.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0268.0±45 ptsRWN.AGR.0257.0±42 ptsRWN.AGR.0362.0±41 ptsRWN.INF.0344.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0453.0±45 ptsRWN.INF.0566.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0261.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0363.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0448.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0171.0±40 ptsRWN.CRD.0258.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0388.0±22 ptsRWN.CMD.0179.0±35 ptsRWN.CMD.0239.0±46 ptsRWN.PRP.0546.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0954.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1148.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1240.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1340.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1448.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0464.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0548.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1058.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1134.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1258.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0148.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0234.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0740.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0358.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1140.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1234.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0248.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0458.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0758.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0848.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0334.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.1034.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0158.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0558.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0648.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0748.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.ENR.0178.0±35 ptsRWN.AGR.0164.0±39 ptsRWN.INF.0161.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0183.0±33 ptsRWN.ENR.0259.0±47 ptsRWN.ENR.0346.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0268.0±45 ptsRWN.AGR.0257.0±42 ptsRWN.AGR.0362.0±41 ptsRWN.INF.0344.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0453.0±45 ptsRWN.INF.0566.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0261.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0363.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0448.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0171.0±40 ptsRWN.CRD.0258.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0388.0±22 ptsRWN.CMD.0179.0±35 ptsRWN.CMD.0239.0±46 ptsRWN.PRP.0546.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0954.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1148.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1240.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1340.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1448.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0464.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0548.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1058.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1134.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1258.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0148.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0234.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0740.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0358.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1140.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1234.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0248.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0458.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0758.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0848.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0334.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.1034.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0158.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0558.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0648.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0748.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.1040.0±26 pts
Frontiers · Oceanfront Estates · Coastal stress tests
Test the coast under pressure.
Deterministic stress cases show the effect of disruption on your current case. They are not hazard probabilities or insurance estimates.
Coastal scenario comparison
| Scenario | IRR | Multiple | NPV | Cash deficits | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current case Your current underwriting inputs. | 2.6% | 1.28× | -$394,723 | $0 | |
| Weaker demand Occupancy 15 percentage points lower; nightly rate 10% lower. | -0.7% | 0.94× | -$596,603 | $288,857 | |
| Storm disruption Year 3: 90 closure nights and $75,000 net uninsured repair cost. | N/A | 1.15× | -$471,953 | $97,043 | |
| Insurance repricing Initial premium rises 50%; subsequent annual growth is 10%. | 0.6% | 1.06× | -$506,794 | $161,817 | |
| Difficult exit 25% terminal property discount, before selling costs. | -0.6% | 0.94× | -$522,793 | $0 | |
| Currency pressure Asset currency loses 3% against USD each year. | -0.5% | 0.95× | -$518,924 | $0 | |
| Combined downside Occupancy −15 points, growth −2%/year, year-3 closure and repairs, 25% exit discount. | -14.0% | 0.28× | -$935,248 | $303,075 |
Cases replace the named inputs; everything else stays fixed. A year-3 event has no effect on a shorter hold. Applying a scenario changes the current case.
Occupancy × nightly rate
Year 1 cash-on-cash yield after capital renewal and debt.
| Occupancy / ADR | $440 | $550 | $660 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | -5.7% | -4.6% | -3.5% |
| 50% | -3.8% | -2.2% | -0.5% |
| 65% | -1.8% | 0.3% | 2.4% |
| 80% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 5.3% |
| 95% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 8.3% |
Red cells indicate negative first-year cash flow. All other current assumptions apply.
Separate three forms of loss
Lost operating nights
Repairs, access closures or utility outages reduce available inventory. The model reduces nights in the selected event year.
Uninsured capital loss
Deductibles, exclusions and uncovered work require equity. Enter the net repair amount; insurance recovery is not inferred.
Reduced exit value
Recurring flooding, beach loss or rising ownership costs may change buyer demand. The exit discount is separate from repair expenditure.