Modelled index
RWN.ENR.0178.0±35 ptsRWN.AGR.0164.0±39 ptsRWN.INF.0161.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0183.0±33 ptsRWN.ENR.0259.0±47 ptsRWN.ENR.0346.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0268.0±45 ptsRWN.AGR.0257.0±42 ptsRWN.AGR.0362.0±41 ptsRWN.INF.0344.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0453.0±45 ptsRWN.INF.0566.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0261.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0363.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0448.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0171.0±40 ptsRWN.CRD.0258.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0388.0±22 ptsRWN.CMD.0179.0±35 ptsRWN.CMD.0239.0±46 ptsRWN.PRP.0546.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0954.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1148.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1240.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1340.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1448.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0464.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0548.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1058.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1134.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1258.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0148.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0234.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0740.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0358.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1140.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1234.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0248.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0458.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0758.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0848.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0334.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.1034.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0158.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0558.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0648.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0748.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.ENR.0178.0±35 ptsRWN.AGR.0164.0±39 ptsRWN.INF.0161.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0183.0±33 ptsRWN.ENR.0259.0±47 ptsRWN.ENR.0346.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0268.0±45 ptsRWN.AGR.0257.0±42 ptsRWN.AGR.0362.0±41 ptsRWN.INF.0344.0±44 ptsRWN.INF.0453.0±45 ptsRWN.INF.0566.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0261.0±41 ptsRWN.PRP.0363.0±42 ptsRWN.PRP.0448.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0171.0±40 ptsRWN.CRD.0258.0±43 ptsRWN.CRD.0388.0±22 ptsRWN.CMD.0179.0±35 ptsRWN.CMD.0239.0±46 ptsRWN.PRP.0546.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.0954.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1148.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1240.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1340.0±26 ptsRWN.PRP.1448.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0464.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0548.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0754.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1058.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1134.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1258.0±26 ptsRWN.CRD.1348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0148.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0234.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0740.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.EQU.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0358.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1048.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1140.0±26 ptsRWN.CMD.1234.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0248.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0458.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0540.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0640.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0758.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0848.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.0958.0±26 ptsRWN.COL.1040.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0140.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0334.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0434.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0534.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0634.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0734.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0840.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.0934.0±26 ptsRWN.DIG.1034.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0158.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0258.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0348.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0448.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0558.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0648.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0748.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0858.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.0948.0±26 ptsRWN.CUR.1040.0±26 pts
Frontiers · Global Equities · Stress tests
When a good company is a poor investment.
Stress business performance and the price investors are willing to pay. These are scenarios, not probabilities.
Equity stress & sensitivity
Test weaker growth, margins, multiples, dilution and currency, plus wrapper exit discounts, against your case.
Shareholder downside cases
Each stress starts from your current assumptions, capped at supported bounds.
| Scenario | Investor IRR | Net profit | Investor NPV | NPV change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 7.8% | $32,800 | -$6,300 | $0 |
| Revenue growth −5 points | 2.7% | $9,806 | -$18,246 | -$11,946 |
| Final margin −5 points | 2.9% | $10,538 | -$17,867 | -$11,566 |
| Terminal P/E −25% | 3.8% | $14,093 | -$15,886 | -$9,586 |
| Dilution +2 points | 5.7% | $22,538 | -$11,629 | -$5,328 |
| Issuer currency weakens 3% annually | 4.6% | $17,428 | -$14,284 | -$7,983 |
| Combined downside | -10.2% | -$25,279 | -$36,473 | -$30,172 |
The combined case applies all five adverse changes together.
Revenue growth × terminal P/E
Investor NPV at your selected hurdle. Teal is positive, red negative.
| Growth / terminal P/E | 10.8× | 14.4× | 18× | 21.6× | 25.2× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | -$27,829 | -$21,975 | -$16,120 | -$10,266 | -$4,411 |
| 4.0% | -$24,905 | -$18,195 | -$11,486 | -$4,777 | $1,933 |
| 6.0% | -$21,638 | -$13,969 | -$6,300 | $1,369 | $9,038 |
| 8.0% | -$17,996 | -$9,252 | -$508 | $8,236 | $16,979 |
| 10.0% | -$13,941 | -$3,996 | $5,949 | $15,894 | $25,839 |
Wrapper-specific exit stress
Discounts to the terminal reference value for a wrapped holding.
| Discount to terminal value | Wrapped investor IRR | Wrapped NPV |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | 7.2% | -$8,125 |
| 10% | 5.6% | -$11,992 |
| 30% | 2.1% | -$19,726 |
| 100% | -36.8% | -$46,795 |
Uses the ownership view’s additional fees and dividend pass-through. A terminal discount is not a simulation of mid-hold insolvency, a trading halt or legal recovery.
The model does not forecast volatility.
Annual endpoints conceal the path between them.
A market crash, loss of liquidity or forced sale can matter even if the business later recovers. No margin borrowing, options, short positions, stochastic simulation or probability of loss is modelled.
Next: compare a traditional share with a specified token wrapper.
Traditional vs tokenised →