Frontiers · Global Equities · Valuation lab
Compare the exit P/E path with an FCFE discounted cash-flow value and the growth the entry price implies.
Modelled outcome
Entry market price
60 CU
Scenario terminal price
90.88 CU
Terminal EPS × P/E
DCF value today
45.02 CU
Per current share
DCF gap to entry
-25.0%
Model value ÷ price − 1
How much of the modelled value depends on the years after the forecast.
| Component | Value per share |
|---|---|
| Discounted explicit FCFE | 16.84 CU |
| Discounted terminal FCFE | 28.18 CU |
| Unfloored modelled value | 45.02 CU |
| Displayed equity value (floor zero) | 45.02 CU |
| Terminal share of unfloored value | 62.6% |
FCFE per share = EPS × conversion rate. Each forecast year includes the entered share-count change. Terminal growth is per-share growth after the explicit period, with no further dilution term. Dividends are not added to FCFE.
The annual growth at which investor NPV equals zero at your hurdle, all else held.
8.17% a year
Entered growth: 6% a year. Solved by bisection on the full shareholder cash-flow model; it reverse-engineers expectations, it does not forecast them.
The per-share path both valuation lenses draw on.
| Year | Revenue (m CU) | Net margin | Net income (m CU) | Diluted shares (m) | EPS (CU) | FCFE / share (CU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10,600 | 15.4% | 1,635.43 | 505 | 3.24 | 2.91 |
| 2 | 11,236 | 15.9% | 1,781.71 | 510.05 | 3.49 | 3.14 |
| 3 | 11,910.16 | 16.3% | 1,939.65 | 515.15 | 3.77 | 3.39 |
| 4 | 12,624.77 | 16.7% | 2,110.14 | 520.3 | 4.06 | 3.65 |
| 5 | 13,382.26 | 17.1% | 2,294.1 | 525.51 | 4.37 | 3.93 |
| 6 | 14,185.19 | 17.6% | 2,492.54 | 530.76 | 4.7 | 4.23 |
| 7 | 15,036.3 | 18.0% | 2,706.53 | 536.07 | 5.05 | 4.54 |
Next: separate distributions, reinvestment and share-count change.
Dividends & dilution →